Violent struggle and terrorism in the Middle East and in the rest of the world are correlated with surging oil prices. Other analysts point to the need to consider inflation when looking at oil prices, to get things into proper perspective.
Yes, prices are high they say, but if you compare them with those of the past and factor in inflation, then the highest prices recorded were in December Nevertheless, this line of argument has been important in calming concerns. There are a growing number of people who believe that we have either reached, are to close to, or will approach in the next few years, the peak of oil production.
The Internet is full of websites dealing with the peaking of oil and gas, and many organize around the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. Peak Oil is not new. The idea has been around since the s, when Dr. King Hubbert made his predictions about the peaking of oil production in the US. There is a clip on YouTube where he outlines his surprisingly accurate predictions. What the Peak Oil community of scientists have done is apply the same methodology for the global supply of oil.
The debate around the methodology, the data and the results has been intense and there is no consensus. In April , Worldoil. They concluded that prudent risk minimization requires that mitigation measures are implemented around 20 years before peaking. Further, in an era where easy, cheap oil is no longer a safe bet, the only way to maintain production levels is through significant investments in oil production facilities across the world.
Comfortably reassuring for many. What is really lacking here, however, is a rigorous debate between these divergent groups and the sharing of data, methodologies and expertise in order to refine the forecasts and guide policies.
This in turn adds to the uncertainty and to procrastination in policy circles. Who should we believe? Japan is the third biggest importer of oil in the world after the US and China. The recent spike in oil prices resulted in political tension in the National Diet parliament this year over whether to extend the temporarily heightened rate of tax on gasoline.
Peak oil — the point in time when domestic or global oil production peaks and begins to forever decline — has been looming on the horizon for decades. Countless research reports, government studies and oil industry analyses have tried to pin down the exact year when peak oil will occur, to no avail. The stakes are undeniably high: Much of human civilization is now inextricably linked to a readily available supply of inexpensive oil and petroleum products.
From heating, electricity production and transportation to cosmetics, medicines and plastic bags, modern life runs on oil. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to stop exporting oil to the United States, much of Western Europe, Japan and several other nations. Though the oil embargo only lasted five months until March , it sent shock waves throughout the industrialized world and underscored our utter dependence on petroleum.
Many government leaders and academic institutions realized, even after the embargo ended, that the global oil economy couldn't last forever. Years earlier, in , geologist M. Geological Survey predicted that oil production in the lower 48 U.
Though his comments generated much controversy, he was later vindicated when institutions such as the National Academy of Sciences and the Energy Information Agency EIA confirmed that his now-famous bell curve predicting the peak was correct, despite much rosier predictions made by industry and government analysts. When Hubbert turned his sights to global oil production in , his report was equally disturbing, especially in light of the OPEC oil embargo: He predicted that the world's peak oil production would occur in , assuming that current production and use trends continue.
In , Hubbert said in an interview , "We are in a crisis in the evolution of human society. It's unique to both human and geologic history. It has never happened before and it can't possibly happen again. You can only use oil once. Since Hubbert introduced the concept of peak oil, countless forecasters from every corner of the industrial, governmental and academic worlds have tried to substantiate or refute Hubbert's prediction.
Geoscientist Kenneth S. Meanwhile, petroleum geologist Colin Campbell, a founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil ASPO , once estimated that peak oil had occurred around , but his views have shifted somewhat as new data have become available.
The trouble is, determining when peak oil will occur, if it already has occurred, or if it will happen at all, are all dependent on an ever-changing set of assumptions and variables. Reserves are the known amount of oil that can be extracted given present-day prices and present-day technology, Carroll explained.
Peak oil has been declared several times, but each deceleration has proved premature because of new extraction technologies like hydraulic fracturing and better surveying techniques. Because oil is a non-replenishing resource, there is a limit to how much the world can extract and refine. However, the scenario of total depletion is just one version of peak oil. In theory, peak oil can be brought on by the production squeeze—the drawdown as new reserves get more expensive to extract.
It can also be caused by a production decline when oil alternatives become more cost-effective, pricing oil out of the market and making it unprofitable to explore new reserves. Since then, peak oil on the supply side, either from total drawdown or difficulty of extraction, has been a major concern for energy-dependent nations. Every time prices increase based on peak oil forecasts, the higher prices incentivize new investments in technology that postpone the peak. Of course, there is still a ceiling to oil extraction, but that may not be reached due to peak oil demand.
Peak oil demand refers to a scenario in production falls due to lower consumption, rather than scarcity of resources. This is especially likely if green technology and alternative energy become more cost-effective than extracting oil. In , OPEC the one-time bogeyman of peak oil supply started to discuss peak oil demand as a possibility within a decade. One possible indication of peak oil occurred in , when U. The drop was largely attributed to low oil prices, due to reduced consumption during the COVID pandemic.
So peak oil is once again appearing on the horizon—just not for the reasons expected in the s. In , Hubbert predicted that global oil production would peak near the year at a rate of Twelve years later, he estimated that the world would hit peak oil if the current trends continued.
Both his theories proved incorrect. Climate scientists have warned that oil is a major source of carbon dioxide, a driver of global climate change. A successful effort to curb global warming would likely require a reduction in oil consumption.
Some of the most obvious consequences of hitting peak oil supply are directly related to the economy. A sudden drop in oil supplies will lead to a sharp spike in prices, with a ripple effect in oil-dependent industries. Major sectors like agriculture could see a steep decline, due to the scarcity of oil-based fertilizers and fuel.
The ripple effect could continue to shipping, transportation, and even the food and manufacturing industries. In a worst-case scenario, large areas of the world could experience famine because of higher food prices. Peak oil would also have a sizeable effect on the climate, by reducing the carbon footprints of oil-dependent industries.
Fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas are major sources of atmospheric carbon dioxide and a leading factor in anthropogenic climate change. Without "deep reductions" in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures will likely increase by over 2 degrees Celsius before Wall Street Journal.
Energy Information Administration. Climate Launchpad. Is It Here Yet?
0コメント